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Can Edsa III be repeated and Erap reinstalled?

By Alejandro Lichauco

ANALYSIS

03/24/2008

Some readers have taken exception to the view expressed by this writer in last week’s piece (March 17) that unless the resign movement reaches a consensus on a alternative to GMA, she stays. The comment is that GMA could fall if there should be a repeat of Edsa III.

Edsa III, if you recall, was staged by Erap’s supporters enraged by the circumstances under which Erap was forced out of Malacañang and was an attempt by their supporters to force GMA out and put Erap back in. It failed simply because the AFP decided to stick it out with GMA as it continues to do so now.

This time around, however, so the view goes, the AFP needn’t necessarily be found supportive of GMA and in fact if the crowd is big enough, it could turn against her and return Erap to the presidency.

The theme is dubious but it can’t be entirely overlooked. One can visualize that if Malacañang, for example, were surrounded by a mass of Erap’s supporters approximating the size of that which demonstrated in Makati (estimated at some 80,000) chanting “Erap pa rin,” or “Ibalik si Erap,” that a significant segment of the AFP, enough at least to make a difference, might just be persuaded to turn against this government and replace GMA with Erap. Or, if that were seen to be controversial, at least with a military junta.

One can also imagine that there could be sufficient number in Erap’s political camp, as well as in the military, who entertain the notion of Erap being reinstalled if the clamor for GMA’s resignation should continue to mount. Better Erap, so the notion would go, as long as GMA is out.

The reason this notion can’t be dismissed is that the forces who engineered Edsa II have been either discredited or have admitted to a mistake. Note that the big guns in Congress who engineered Erap’s impeachment — Villar, Guingona, Pimentel and Legarda — have virtually made up with Erap and might even be assumed amenable to seeing Erap back in Malacañang in the absence of any other alternative.

We can also assume that major elements of the Makati business community would object to an Erap’s reinstallation but at this point they don’t appear too relevant, if at all, and what they say wouldn’t really matter.

As for the institutional church or church hierarchy, the group seems much weakend in credibility and whether the bishops object to an Erap reinstallation or not also wouldn’t matter.

The fact is — and this is what matters — the main pillars of Edsa II, namely the institutional church and the Makati business community, as well as civil society as a whole, have been discredited by GMA sub-prime performance. GMA is about as discredited as those sub-prime loans which have literally brought the American economy to a full-blown crisis. In brief, the pillars of Edsa II aren’t really in a position, moral or otherwise, to interpose any objection to Erap’s reinstallation by the AFP should the latter decide to so reinstall him.

The crucial question is whether the AFP as an institution can be moved or persuaded to reinstall Erap should the resign movement intensify and take on a quantum leap. Erap partisans who believe that the AFP can be moved to do so base their sensing that in the absence of a consensus within the resign movement on an alternative to GMA, Erap could just carry the day with or without that consensus. He could carry the day if the AFP were to see that an impressive enough segment of the masses want Erap back. Meaning to say, if it could be shown that Erap’s masa is impressive enough in numbers to carry the day.

If those among the masses who turn out in Erap’s appearances mount and reach an impressive enough number, there isn’t any telling the kind of impact this would have on the mindset of the AFP, particularly if the resign movement gains ground and GMA’s popularity, that is to say whatever remains of it, continues to decline.

In brief, we can’t rule out the AFP finally deciding that in the overall it would be better to return the fallen president to the presidency rather than live with the growing social turmoil and turbulence that come with continued support to GMA, and which turmoil and turbulence could wind up setting the masses against the AFP itself.

The last thing that the AFP would want to see is the rage of the masses squarely directed against them. Between the “elite” who continue to see Erap as a political undesirable, on one hand, and the masa who see in Erap the promise of redemption on the other, there shouldn’t be any doubt as to where the AFP’s choice would eventually turn.

The question then is: Can there be a repeat of Edsa III? No question that if there should be one, chances are that this time GMA goes, and Erap is in. Without or without any consensus within the Resign Movement as to who the alternative to GMA should be.