Unifying two Muslim factions an impossibility

FRONTLINE

Ninez Cacho-Olivares

04/29/2008

Nur Misuari suddenly gets bail after the bail he sought from the court was earlier denied, but of course Malacañang claims it had no involvement in the court’s decision.

Yet it was pretty evident that Misuari, accused of rebellion — and it was an armed rebellion, resulting in many deaths --- was freed by the court right after the Malaysian government announced it was pulling out its peace monitors, the team which was keeping track of the ceasefire agreement.

And then there was National Security Adviser Norberto Gonzales ready to take off to Tripoli to seek the help of the Libyan strongman, in getting the Nur Misuari’s Moro National Liberation Front (MNLF) and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) to unify, which is an impossibility, as both factions want ascendancy.

But Gloria, through Gonzales, wants to create that perception that she is not hard on Misuari and that the court had not only granted him house arrest, but even granted him temporary liberty.

This was done to show “good faith” on Gloria’s part when Gonzales goes off to Tripoli to meet with the Libyan officials.

But this still would not work.

For one, MNLF has a peace pact with the government, which it says has been breached too many times by the government. The MNLF opted for autonomy in exchange for the peace pact, with the ARMM established, as a result of the peace accord. The MNLF, with Misuari heading it, was supposed to rein in the ARMM.

It is hardly that today under the Arroyo regime, that has tapped the Ampatuans to reign in the ARMM and they are hardly identified with the MNLF.

It was the non-acceptance of autonomy that the breakaway group, the Hashim Salamat group of MILF, was born and this group of rebels was already hardly a threat after the Estrada government launched an all-out offensive against the MILF.

But Gloria, who relied on the MILF to destabilize Estrada, promised to meet the demands of the MILF, when the coup d’ etat succeeded.

And the MILF has been asking for a lot —and not just the return of its so-called ancestral land. The MILF wants to establish an independent Islamic state with its own banking and financial system, separate and distinct from the Philippine government’s financial and banking system.

But as Gloria and her civil society — including the bishops — were drunk with success at deposing Erap, the Gloria government quickly forged a general peace agreement with the MILF in Tripoli, which was already a mistake, then went on to commit an even bigger mistake, by internationalizing the MILF issue, by getting Malaysia to broker the peace talks.

At that time, Gloria believed she could do anything and get away with it. After all, she succeeded in getting Malaysia to keep Misuari out of the country and she figured with Misuari out, the MNLF would crumble and the MILF would take its place of power.

Thus, without seeing the big picture, she gave in to too many demands of the MILF, without realizing the bigger problem she had created in promising the MILF the moon.

She now knows she can’t deliver on her promise, as there are clear constitutional constraints, apart from the existing peace pact with the MNLF. And what she has been trying to do all these years is merely to keep the ceasefire agreement with the MILF going, without, however, entering into a peace accord, as she can’t possibly pull it off without getting the other Muslim group raising hell.

With Malaysia’s monitors in place, Gloria and her peace panel kept the peace talks going, without making any concrete progress in forging a peace agreement with the MILF. Unfortunately, Malaysia, which is partial to the MILF, saw through the government’s dilly-dallying on the peace pact and announced its withdrawal of its peace monitors, and Gloria is now faced with an even bigger problem, as there is a breakaway MNLF group that is well-armed, apart from the armed MILF that may be ready to wage a full guerrilla war at this time when problems have been compounding for Gloria, with crisis after crisis facing her.

It’s no joke that the oil prices have gone up much too much, close to hitting P50 per liter retail. There is a food shortage and a rice crisis, even if Gloria refuses to admit it. She has been staving off protests by offering a P5 billion subsidy to the poor — some 300,000 families — which will hardly go to the poor — if that amount comes as pledged.

The military will be kept busy fighting the guerrilla war by the Muslim groups, as well as fighting the commies in the hinterlands. That means more deaths, and more money.

Gloria, in making all these moves, invited trouble. She has it now.

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