Too early for defections

FRONTLINE

Ninez Cacho-Olivares

11/09/2009

As things stand today, with still some six months before polling day, all the so-called party men defecting to several presidential contenders camp and swearing fealty to their new parties is being done for propaganda purposes, to create the perception that indeed, they do have a political machine that gets stronger with every defection.

But with political parties and their members not knowing the meaning of party loyalty, and can flit from one party to another, on the so-called survey strength of the presidential candidates, these same defectors can’t be relied on to stay true and loyal to their new party and its presidential bet, once these same presidentiables go down in survey ratings as the polls get nearer and nearer.

Almost everyone is convinced that the administration Lakas-Kampi standard bearer Gibo Teodoro has no chance at all. Perhaps he doesn’t, but perhaps he may have that chance say, two months before the polls, if he inches his way through the surveys, which incidentally, are hardly reliable, given the fact that these survey outfits so suddenly, do not make public the demographics essential for one to do a serious analysis of the survey results.

The Social Weather Stations (SWS) is guilty of non-disclosure of its demographic profiles. The latest Ibon survey is just a guilty of this, and worse, as it was found, from their survey, that in its Visayas vote based on a list, there was no Joseph Estrada listed, thus, not vote.

During the 2004 presidential surveys, Gloria Arroyo was pretty down in the ratings dump initially, but suddenly was inching her way through the surveys and ended up winning — even in the SWS exit polls.

The Tribune, that early, already reported that the surveys were being “massaged” to favor Arroyo. This was of course denied, but even now, the results of the polls indicate massaging of the results for certain presidentiables.

But since too many fall for such tainted surveys, and with this practice still continuing, it is likely that in the end, these defections won’t mean anything, and these politicians will work for whoever they believe have that bigger chance of landing in Malacañang in 2010.

It is after all, not merely a question of having the biggest political machinery to win the polls. This was proved by then opposition standard bearer Fernando Poe Jr.

He didn’t even have poll watchers, yet he won the race, even if Gloria was proclaimed the official winner. Neither did he have the kind of money Gloria was throwing into her campaign. And it also cannot be denied that Gloria, in 2004, had the strongest political machinery. The entire government resources in fact.

With all that she had, why did she lose, and had to cheat to win?

It was the voters in the end, that made the difference. Except in some areas where administration kingpins ruled, and command votes were the order of the day, the politicians couldn’t force their constituents to vote for Gloria.

Of course a political machine and organizations are important for a presidential candidate to win, but just as important are the voters who have their own preferences when it comes down to the presidential and vice presidential races.

While it may be claimed that all politics is local, in local politics the voting relationship between the local official and his constituents is more bonded than one thinks, apart from the usual cheating in local elections.

Still, it is a good propaganda ploy to have the media spin the few politicians’ defections to the Liberal Party and the Nacionalista Party as their sign of gaining political machinery strength.

But if one looks closely, save for a few known politicians in their provinces, too many of them are unknowns and not even incumbents. And others have no names, merely numbers claimed.

Still, that’s addition, and as they always say, politics is addition.

But for how long?

For as long as these candidates are seen as moneyed and have the best chances of bagging the presidency.

That’s how it has always worked, and how it will work in 2010.

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