It would be an unenviable situation that congressmen allies of Noynoy will find themselves in today as the House votes on the Reproductive Health (RH) bill since it seems that they are caught between the devil and the deep blue sea.
Their position becomes more precarious as the House majority leader pushed nominal voting for the bill instead of the mere raising of hands.
The majority leader claimed that nominal voting bespeaks of transparency, rather than a viva voce vote.
That could well be true. However, given that Noynoy is pushing the congressional enactment of the RH bill, nominal voting could very well have something to do with knowing just who voted for, or against it, as it is generally known that when the Malacañang resident wants a congressional vote on a measure he wants passed, great are the Palace rewards for the congressmen who go along with what Noynoy wants.
Noynoy tried to marshall his forces in a caucus yesterday, worried that the vote today would be marred by absences after the Church gave those who will vote in favor of the bill something to think about related to next year’s elections after the prayer rally at Edsa Shrine against the bill which is evidently a show of force by the bishops on the Church’s diminished but still potent clout.
The bishops have said that they will use the pulpit now to endorse the candidacy of House members who will oppose the bill, which is music to the ears of those seeking an elective post next year. Of course, it goes without saying that the Church will exert all efforts to block the victory in the polls of those who will vote for the bill.
Noynoy apparently dangled incentives for the bill to hurdle the House, likely in the form of a promise to aid the campaign of those who will vote for its passage, if not outright cash which was the practice in loyalty checks of the previous administration and apparently, also the Noynoy administration’s practice.
The transactional politics that Gloria had patented is being rapidly readopted by Noynoy to facilitate the Palace’s objectives with Congress and the tools being used are likely similar to the past such as the use of the pork barrel as leverage.
With only 80 or so legislators who are bona fide Liberal Party (LP) members in the House, Noynoy needs to muster almost the same number of allies to achieve a majority vote for the RH bill, which will be harder to achieve now compared to raising the necessary votes to impeach former Chief Justice Renato Corona.
The vote today would be a test of Noynoy’s true political traction at the House and will gauge how votes will go, on politically difficult but needed legislations which remained pending in Congress such as the Freedom of Information (FoI) bill which is as equally controversial as the RH measure.
Noynoy for his part, is under siege from both sides of the parties engaged in the RH bill debates, with the Church threatening short of excommunication on Noynoy and his allies for pushing the bill, while on the other side are the international agencies, with their financial muscle, demanding that Noynoy fulfill his commitment for a clear-cut population control policy.
The dirty work, however, that is needed to be done at the House and later on at the Senate, all  Noynoy can do is only  for them to await his clout, or otherwise, luck to hold.
With election day closing in, the vote today can go either way — especially if Noynoy does not move.
A non-passage of the RH bill, however, would generate the perception that he has largely lost his clout over the House of Representatives.